Down the line: How the Orioles beat the Rangers in the wild-card game

6 Oct

National Post | Sports

Orioles 2 Rangers 1

AL wild-card game, Rangers Ballpark at Arlington

Texas, the AL champion the last two seasons, completed its end-of-season collapse by losing the American League wild-card game at home. Baltimore advances to face the New York Yankees in one AL Division Series starting on Sunday at 6 p.m. ET.

These are the key game-changing plays as defined by the change in win expectancy. The result of every at-bat in every baseball game changes the win expectancy based on a probability chart of historical data. We go down the line on the WE chart for the game at Fangraphs.com

[np-related /]

1. Baltimore: Chris Davis, single advances runner to third in the sixth inning
Win expectancy before: 55.0%
Win expectancy after: 67.3%
Net change: 12.3%

The Orioles won this one with a series of paper cuts, rather than broad strokes. J.J. Hardy, who drove in the Orioles run…

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